The third round of the US Open rolls on with more incredible matchups on Day Six!
I’ve found value on two of Saturday’s matchups — Peyton Stearns vs Katie Boulter and Daria Kasatkina vs Greet Minnen.
Read on for my 2023 US Open picks.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.
US Open Odds, Picks
Peyton Stearns (-135) vs Katie Boulter (+110)
6 p.m. ET
Peyton Stearns dominated Clara Tauson 6-3, 6-0 in the second round. Stearns won 80% of her service points and wasn’t broken all match. On return, the American won 55% of her return points and was broken four times.
Stearns is 21-8 this year on hard courts, with a strong 90-51 career record on the surface. She has a fairly powerful serve, as was showcased against Tauson, and hits with controlled aggression from her forehand wing. Stearns tries to play aggressively with her backhand as well, although this wing can break down. The former Texas Longhorn has excellent court positioning, anticipates effectively and does a fairly good job of absorbing pace. What she lacks, however, is explosiveness and variety.
Katie Boulter defeated Yafan Wang 5-7, 6-1, 6-4 to advance in Flushing Meadows. Boulter won just 49% of second serves and was broken three times, but she won 70% of her first serves. In addition, the Brit won 60% of her second-serve returns and broke on five occasions.
Boulter has a fantastic 20-11 record in 2023 on hard courts, with a 203-134 professional record on the surface. She hits her spots on serve and plays aggressively from the baseline, hitting her forehand particularly well.
However, Boulter’s backhand is erratic and she’s not the best mover. Defending and absorbing pace are not strong suits, thus she struggles when she’s not in control of rallies.
Stearns is playing at a higher level and should come through. Her forehand should be the biggest shot on the court and she should be able to dictate from that wing.
Boulter is at her best when playing against players who lack power to push her around and allow her to stay in her comfort zone, directing baseline play. Stearns, with her court positioning, high tennis IQ and ability to rip the ball from her forehand wing, should be able to put Boulter on the defensive.
And Boulter, given her lack of foot speed and struggles when absorbing pace, should struggle to extend rallies and successfully counterpunch. Whereas Stearns is better in defensive positions of the court.
Pick: Stearns ML (-135 via PointsBet)
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Daria Kasatkina (-350) vs Greet Minnen (+265)
11 a.m. ET
Daria Kasatkina defeated Sofia Kenin 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 to advance to the third round. Kasatkina won just 49% of her service points and was broken seven times. However, the Russian won 49% of her return points and broke on seven occasions herself.
Kasatkina is just 13-11 this season on hard courts, but she’s 8-3 during the summer hard-court swing. As a professional, she has a solid 187-122 record on the surface.
Kasatkina is often able to dictate with her excellent placement, particularly with her forehand. She spreads the court well, is an excellent defender and turns defense into offense with ease. What she lacks is power, especially on serve.
Greet Minnen qualified for the US Open and beat Sachia Vickery 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 in the second round. Minnen won 60% of her service points, but was broken on four occasions. The Belgian also won 54% of her second-serve returns and broke five times.
Minnen is 28-7 this year on hard courts (although against lower-level competition). She has an impressive 187-98 record on hard courts in her career.
The Belgian hits her spots on serve and plays an attacking style from the baseline, positioning herself well on the court. Minnen’s groundstrokes cut through the court and she’s not afraid to move forward. With that said, Minnen doesn’t have overwhelming power and she doesn’t play with a lot of margin, which can lead to batches of unforced errors.
While Kasatkina has had to fight through her matches in New York thus far, this is a good matchup for her. The Russian has the defensive skills and ability to absorb pace that should help her to defuse Minnen’s attack.
Minnen doesn’t have the raw power to get a ton of free points on serve and hit through Kasatkina. Given that Minnen doesn’t play with a lot of margin to begin with, this could lead to plenty of unforced errors. And if Minnen tries to rush Kasatkina by coming to the net, the Russian has some of the best passing shots in the game.
Finally, Kasatkina’s overall Elo rating is 194.5 points higher and her hard-court Elo is 202.6 points above the Belgian’s.
Pick: Kasatkina -1.5 sets (-130 via PointsBet)
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