Tuesday night features one of the best WNBA slates in recent memory, with all four of the top teams in the standings in action (two of them against each other), and games spread out over the ESPN family of networks.
Personally, I’m going to have multiple screens up to keep up with all the action, so let’s get you bettors some extra juice to watch these games with!
WNBA Odds & Picks
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Mercury vs. Dream Odds
Atlanta can be an infuriatingly inconsistent team, but its being disrespected with this opening line from the books. This opened at Dream -4.5, implying they are a 1.5-point favorite over the Mercury, the team with the second-worst net rating in the league right now.
The Dream are fresh off a pair of losses to the Sun in which their offense looked absolutely lost, but before that, they were the hottest team in the league, sporting a seven-game win streak. Zooming out a little, it’s clear the Dream beats teams they should beat (9-1 against teams with a losing record) and loses to the top tier of the league (3-9 against teams with winning records).
I have this spread at Dream -10.5, so there is plenty of room by my projections to be on the Dream, and I’m going to be looking to bet them a few different ways.
I like the full game spread, but my favorite play is the Mercury team total under 80.5 because I also like the under. The Dream have been much more of an under team of late, and the Mercury offense is abysmal. They will also be without Diana Taurasi, which is great news — on both ends — for an under. Her absence also hurts Brittney Griner, as Taurasi has assisted on basically a third of Griner’s buckets in the games they have played together (h/t Dani Bar-Lavi of Winsidr and Her Hoops Stats).
As such, we have a cornucopia of plays! Best bets below, along with leans on Atlanta first half and Griner points under (the opposite of how we had been going recently, so italicized for emphasis).
Bet: Dream -6; Under 166.5; Mercury team total under 80.5.
Storm vs. Liberty Odds
There is a trend in the WNBA this season where the favorites get out to fast leads and then the underdogs claw back to cover in the fourth. It’s why full-game ATS records are not out of whack, but teams have such disparate quarter-by-quarter net ratings.
This game has two teams that epitomize that. The Liberty have a net rating of +15.4 in the first quarter; the Storm have a net rating of -25.7 in the first quarter. Of course, come the fourth quarter, it’s the Storm with a +10.1 net rating, while the Liberty have a -8.8 net rating. The fourth quarter difference is arguably even more stark given the teams’ overall production this season.
As such, this game sets up perfectly for a game script that reads: Liberty take a huge lead; Storm scramble back late to land right around where the spread was (15.5 as of writing).
If you have a book that has same game parlays and will allow you to bet quarters, parlaying a Liberty first quarter cover with a Storm fourth quarter moneyline would be an excellent way to use the SGP algorithm against itself a bit.
However, I like both bets on their own as well, as the books have a hard time fully adjusting for extremes as big as these two have in their quarter-by-quarter net ratings.
The latter half of this bet isn’t out yet, but should be around Storm +3.5.
Bet: Liberty first quarter -4.5; Storm fourth quarter spread.
Aces vs. Sky Odds
I’ll just link to my preview here. The full writeup includes all the logic for several picks on this game, including some leans not included here.
Bets: Aces first half -8.5; A’ja Wilson over 10.5 rebounds.
Sun vs. Wings Odds
I will also be somewhat brief here because although this is easily the game I am most excited to watch from a non-betting perspective (for me, the winner of this game takes the lead as the third-best threat to the Aces), it’s a game I don’t have as much betting advice.
My one lean is yet another Satou Sabally under on both her points and rebounds. She has burned me several times on this, but overall, she still has had more unders than overs since Teaira McCowan returned from overseas. Add in the fact that the Sun defense is truly elite, and I’ll go back to the well one more time, as long as the numbers posted are there.
I’m projecting Sabally for 14.0 points and 7.0 rebounds, and would bet under 15.5 and 7.5 at standard juice, as such.
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