The sample sizes increase, the data improves, the narratives shapeshift, and then you look up one day to realize the WNBA regular season is ending relatively soon.
Well, hopefully we’ll make you some money with our prop picks, especially tonight, because these three bets for A’ja Wilson, Nneka Ogwumike and Ezi Magbegor should all be sweats.
(And now, certainly one or two won’t be, because of course.)
Oh, and happy birthday to A’ja Wilson! I’m sure she’ll celebrate by hitting her over in Aces vs. Wings, right?
WNBA Player Props & Picks
Ezi Magbegor, Under 13.5 points (-115)
|Time | TV||3 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
We usually play Trap or Trend, but how about both?!
The 6-foot-4 Ezi Magbegor has been in a nice rhythm scoring the ball save for one recent seemingly outlier performance.
Magbegor has eclipsed 13.5 points in five of her last six, and the apparent key is that she’s gotten to 10 or more field goal attempts in each of those contests. In the lone game that she went under, she shot 2-for-4 and ended the evening with six points, which was part of a blowout 23-point win over the Indiana Fever.
However, in two games against the Connecticut Sun frontcourt, she’s scored eight and 13 points, respectively. The Sun boast one of the league’s best defenses, and they have limited Magbegor to fewer than 10 shots in both outings.
Magbegor’s also had the benefit of shooting 55 percent on 11 attempts per game during her last six, but she has been ineffective from 3. If she could get to the foul line — where she’s been nearly four times per game over the last couple weeks and hitting about 73 percent of freebies — it’ll be a sweat.
But the Sun’s defense, starting with Alyssa Thomas, should bring this home for a third time this season despite Magbegor’s recent success. Sell high on Magbegor tonight against the Sun.
A’ja Wilson, Over 21.5 points (-120)
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | CBSSN|
Someone’s gonna have to wipe off the smell of that last performance for A’ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces.
Wilson had her second-lowest scoring output of the season with nine points on 2-of-14 shooting in the Aces’ near 40-point loss to the New York Liberty in Brooklyn on Sunday. It was Wilson’s second single-digit-point performance this season. Last time she did, it was in a blowout victory, where she shot 4-for-14 and accumulated eight points in a 31-point stomping delivered to the Minnesota Lynx on June 18.
Tonight is a perfect spot for Wilson to explode and the Aces to respond by thumping the Wings, who’ve actually played tough in three previous showings. Wilson went over 21.5 points in five straight games before her last two outings, one of which included a 22-point effort against the Wings in a 13-point win. She’s eclipsed 21.5 points against the Wings twice this season.
We’re taking the over for The Birthday Girl, and I even gave Wilson 25-plus points a look on FanDuel at +154 for added value, but I may not push my luck given that this could be a sweat, especially if it’s a blowout Aces win in response to their Liberty dud.
Nneka Ogwumike, Over 19.5 Points (-113)
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET|
Okay, Nneka, we’re gonna try this again.
I bet Nneka Ogwumike over 18.5 points on Thursday, and she finished with 18.
(Hey, at least I’m up front!)
She, of course, immediately followed with 20 points over the weekend. Ogwumike will be opposite one of the league’s worst defenses and teams in the Fever, whom she just torched for 30 and 25 points, respectively, in the last week of July.
She’ll see little resistance once again and get whatever shot she wants as she pleases for much of the game. The only hangup is if Ogwumike’s Sparks blow out the Fever before she gets 20, but the Sparks aren’t a ton better, either.
Ogwumike has scored 20 or more points in six of her last 10 and has had at least back-to-back 20-point showings five times this season.
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