Aces vs. Dream Odds
Tuesday, Aug. 22
7 p.m. ET
-110 / -110
-110 / -110
The Las Vegas Aces travel to Atlanta Tuesday evening to face off with the Dream.
The Aces are fresh off their most surprising defeat of the season, a home loss to the Los Angeles Sparks Saturday, their first regular season home loss this year.
As for the Dream, they won their most recent outing over the Sky, but before that had been in a bit of a rut, taking only one of their previous six games.
The Dream will likely be without Allisha Gray and Nia Coffey Tuesday, and Rhyne Howard is questionable.
The Aces, on the other hand, have a clean bill of health beyond Candace Parker, who is out for the season.
With the injuries to Atlanta, and the Aces fresh off a tough loss, this looks to be a hammer spot for the Aces, especially early on.
This line opened at Aces -10, but after the Gray injury news moved rapidly further toward them. The Aces have been outstanding after the rare times they have lost this season, and particularly in the first halves of those games.
After they lost to the Sun in June, they were up 17 at the half against the Sky their next game. After they lost to the Wings in July, they were up 12 at the half against the Lynx the next game. After they lost to the Liberty in August, they were up 28 (!!) at the half against the Wings the next game. And finally, after they lost to the Liberty in the Commissioner’s Cup, they were up 13 at the half against the Liberty just two days later.
This is an elite team that also has the energy of a beehive thanks to players like Chelsea Gray.
After a loss they come out absolutely locked in, and with Saturday being their worst loss of the season, it’s the Dream who are going to have to face that energy Tuesday night.
That’s rough news for the Dream regardless, but especially so given the circumstances. The Dream have been one of the slower starting teams all season, with a -4.5 Net Rating that is notably lower than their overall -1.9 Net Rating.
This is also a team with a couple new players joining the starting rotation due to the injuries listed above. If they are going to click, it will take a bit.
But mostly, this has just been a bad team for most of the second half of the season. In the past month, only the Washington Mystics (decimated by injuries) have a worse Net Rating than the Dream (-6.7), and that’s been in large part due to an offense that just has no answers.
Their Offensive Rating of 92.2 since July 19 is hands down the worst in the league, and it has made a somewhat respectable defense still not be able to get them over the hump.
Aces vs. Dream
Betting Pick & Prediction
Not surprisingly, I am on the Aces first half. The current line is 8.5, which is a big number for a single half, but I would take this to -9.5.
There are a couple other angles I am looking at, though. As noted above, there are lots of injuries for the Dream, and given their offensive woes regardless, I am betting the first half under 84.5 at PointsBet, and if you have a book to target Dream team total in the first half, I would bet even more on that angle specifically.
Speaking of team total, I am also on the Dream under 76.5, as their offense simply has no answers right now, and the Aces defense – even without Candace – has remained elite.
The only worry is garbage points in a blowout game, but I still like it as a lean.
Pick: Aces first half -8.5; First half under 84.5; Dream team total under 76.5
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